Lessons from the Line of Scrimmage

2. Ohio State v. Texas — Expectations Without Proof of Concept

I know this game went down last weekend, but the lesson was impactful!

Ohio State is the reigning national champion. They lost their Qb, and 13 other players to the NFL draft. A highly touted sophomore QB who has never started, Julian Sayin, is making his first start, along with, two new coordinators, Matt Patricia on defense and they promoted Brian Hartline from WR coach to run the offense. Ohio State is a perineal powerhouse and ranked 3rd in the preseason polls.

Texas is a semifinalist from 2024 where they lost to Ohio State. Their defense has always been their strength and for the last 5 years they have been making their way back to the top of college football. Texas hasn't won a National title since 2005, when Vince Young beat USC. Three years ago the expectations shot through the roof when Arch Manning committed to Texas. Arch Manning is the nephew of Eli and Peyton Manning. He has been called a "Generational Talent". For the last 2 years, he has waited his turn behind Quinn Ewers and Week 1 of the 2025 college football season was his coming out party. Texas was ranked #1 in the preseason poll.

It wasn’t much of a party. It was more of a rock fight.

Both defenses were stout. Ohio State has one of the most complex and unique defenses in college football. Matt Patricia threw everything at Arch, zone, man, simulated pressures, and disguised blitzes. It was a test that Arch didn't look prepared for. The game was defensive masterclass. Final score 14-7 Ohio State.

Arch Manning was named the savior of Texas football the moment he committed. Draft analyst have said he would be the #1 draft pick in the upcoming draft. Paul Finebaum said that Arch is the best player we've seen since Tim Tebow. All of this, before he accomplished anything on the field.

I remember watching Arch's high school film. Yes, I am that into college football. And I was puzzled. Sure, he put up numbers, broke family records, but he played 2A ball, far from the toughest level. But, there was nothing to say he would be generational. And, the fact for the last 2 years he's been sitting behind a QB that was drafted in 7th round. I didn’t see it.

This isn’t about whether Arch ends up being great. I hope he is. It’s about how we evaluate and how we set expectations. For athletes. For leaders. For ourselves.

The skill of evaluation is underrated. It takes objectivity. It takes practice. And it takes courage. Because when the data, or lack of data, is right in front of you, it’s easier to ride the hype than to call it as it is. Who wants to be the one voice questioning the consensus “gut feeling”?

But that courage matters. Setting clear, grounded expectations, not hype, not hope, can be the difference between success and disappointment.

Because hype without proof of concept? That’s just noise.
Grounded expectations; That’s how you build wins.

Photo by Kyle Robertson / USA TODAY Sports